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World

Kerch Strait clash puts Trump-Putin meeting in doubt

Summary

A retrospective on 28 November 2018, three days after Russian forces fired on and seized Ukrainian naval vessels, and the diplomatic and legal pressure on Moscow that followed.

What did the Kerch Strait incident mean for Russia's standing as of 28 November 2018? Three days after the clash, it had already reached the highest level of diplomacy.

On 25 November 2018, the Russian Federal Security Service coast guard fired upon and captured three Ukrainian Navy vessels. They had tried to pass from the Black Sea into the Sea of Azov through the Kerch Strait, on their way to the port of Mariupol. It was the first time Russian forces had openly engaged Ukrainian forces during the Russo-Ukrainian War.

A summit under strain

On 27 November 2018, U.S. President Donald Trump said he might cancel his scheduled meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires later that week. He cited the maritime clash with Ukraine. The remark tied a naval confrontation in the Kerch Strait directly to the planned talks between the two leaders.

A separate legal blow

A different setback for Moscow had come a day earlier. On 26 November 2018, an international tribunal in Paris ordered Russia to pay Oschadbank 1.3 billion dollars. That case was separate from the naval incident, but both developments came within the same few days.

What the moment showed

By 28 November 2018, the clash had become a matter for leaders rather than only for coast guards and navies. The possible loss of a planned Trump–Putin meeting showed how quickly the incident was affecting diplomacy. Whether the meeting would go ahead was still open on that date.

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