Why did 26 November 2024 follow a week of escalation?

What had the days before 26 November 2024 done to the security picture around Ukraine? In the six days leading up to that date, a series of events pushed the war into a more tense phase, and the reactions stretched well beyond the front line.

The trigger: Storm Shadow strikes

On 20 November 2024, Ukraine launched British-produced Storm Shadow cruise missiles into Russian territory for the first time, following approval by the Starmer cabinet. On 21 November, Russia's ambassador to the United Kingdom, Andrey Kelin, said the UK was now "directly involved" in the war in Ukraine because of the strikes.

Russia's answer: Oreshnik over Dnipro

On 21 November 2024, Russia struck Dnipro with a projectile that Russian President Vladimir Putin said was a new Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile. That confirmed earlier reports from the United States and other western officials, who had said Russia used an intermediate-range ballistic missile. Initial reports had misidentified it as an RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile.

Diplomatic and civilian precautions

The warnings came before the Dnipro strike. On 20 November, the US, Italian, Greek and Spanish governments temporarily closed their embassies in Kyiv after threats of a "significant air attack" from Russia. The same day, the embassies of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan urged their citizens to leave areas near Ukrainian combat zones, or Ukraine altogether, citing an escalating risk of Russian retaliatory attacks.

The pattern suggests that governments with no part in the fighting were treating the threat as real enough to change how their diplomats and citizens operated in Ukraine.

Neighbours take defensive steps

On 21 November, Hungary announced the deployment of a missile defence system on its border with Ukraine, saying the threat of escalation with Russia was now "greater than ever". The move stood out because of Hungary's position in the war. Hungary is a member of the EU and NATO but was one of the few European states that did not provide military aid. It nonetheless supplied 40% of Ukraine's electricity imports, by far the largest share among exporting states.

Conventional attacks continued

The escalation in rhetoric and weaponry sat alongside continuing conventional attacks. On 22 November, a Russian drone attack on civilian infrastructure in Sumy killed two people and injured 12 others.

In Belarus, meanwhile, around 1,671 anti-war protesters were arrested on 20 November for showing solidarity with Ukraine, as part of a crackdown on the opposition under President Alexander Lukashenko.

What the sequence showed

Taken together, the events of 20–22 November 2024 show a rapid exchange. Ukraine used a Western-supplied long-range weapon on Russian territory; Russia responded with a missile it presented as a new type; Moscow's envoy in London framed Britain as a direct participant; and states near or connected to the war adjusted their posture. Embassies closed, Central Asian governments issued departure advice, and Hungary moved air defence to its frontier.

The United Kingdom's backing for Ukraine had continued across Conservative and Labour governments, and the Storm Shadow decision came under the Starmer cabinet. By 26 November 2024, the question for Ukraine's neighbours and partners was how far each side's next step would go, and the precautions taken in those days reflected that uncertainty.