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What Novi Sanzhary and Idlib revealed in February 2020
Summary
Two separate episodes, one in Ukraine and one on the Syria–Turkey border, showed how quickly tensions can escalate.
What did the events of the days before 25 February 2020 show about how fast pressure can build? Two reports from 20 February 2020, one from Ukraine and one from Syria, offer a view of two very different kinds of escalation.
In Novi Sanzhary, protests were held against the arrival of people evacuated from China. Buses were damaged and ten people were injured. The reports describe a local confrontation over the arrival of evacuees, and they do not describe any wider consequence.
The Syrian episode was far more lethal. In north-western Syria, Turkish-backed rebels launched an offensive against government forces in Idlib Governorate. A Russian air strike killed two Turkish soldiers and injured five more. Turkey said that a retaliatory strike killed 50 Syrian troops. Several tanks and armoured personnel carriers were destroyed near the village of Nayrab.
Turkey then formally asked its NATO ally, the United States, to deploy Patriot surface-to-air missile systems on the Syria–Turkey border. The aim was to deter Syrian and Russian air strikes on Turkish troops.
The two stories are not connected, and the comparison should not be stretched. Still, each shows a moment in which a security or public-order problem outgrew its first framing. In Novi Sanzhary, people reacted physically to the arrival of evacuees. On the Syrian border, a military exchange led Ankara to seek help from an allied state.
For readers in the region, the lesson of that period is modest but clear: events on 20 February 2020 produced real injuries and deaths, and responses followed within hours.
