What did ceasefire violations in Donbas signal in March 2021?

What did a fresh report of ceasefire violations mean for the Donbas war on 3 March 2021? Two days earlier, on 1 March 2021, Ukraine had reported multiple violations of the ceasefire in the war in Donbass, with one casualty.

The report mattered because of the framework the ceasefire belonged to. The Minsk agreements were a series of international agreements that sought to end the war between armed Russian separatist groups, backed by Russian regular forces, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Talks took place in Minsk, Belarus, involving the Trilateral Contact Group, made up of representatives of Ukraine, Russia and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). France and Germany mediated at leader level in the so-called Normandy Format.

The first Minsk Protocol was signed in September 2014 by representatives of the Trilateral Contact Group and, without recognition of their status, by the then-leaders of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic.

Seen from March 2021, the report showed a ceasefire under strain: violations were continuing and a casualty had been recorded. Ukraine's account of multiple incidents, rather than a single one, pointed to a pattern on the front line rather than an isolated flare-up. The agreements remained the diplomatic reference point for the conflict, even as fighting persisted.