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Russian gains and a Chechnya drone strike
Summary
A look back at two developments in Russia's war on Ukraine reported in the days up to 30 October 2024.
What did the war look like on 30 October 2024? Reports from the preceding day, 29 October, pointed to movement on two fronts: a fast Russian advance in Donetsk Oblast and an unusual drone strike deep inside Russia.
On 29 October, Russia claimed to have taken the cities of Selydove and Hirnyk in Donetsk Oblast. Open-source data indicated that Russian forces were advancing at their fastest pace in at least one year, amid signs of North Korean involvement in the war. Donetsk is one of Ukraine's easternmost regions, alongside Luhansk and Kharkiv, which have been a theatre of operations since the war began in February 2022.
The same day, a drone strike targeted a Special Forces University in Gudermes, Chechnya. It was reported as the first known drone attack in Chechnya by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The head of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov, vowed to retaliate harshly against Ukraine.
Two signals
Taken together, the reports described pressure on the ground in the east and a Ukrainian strike reaching a Russian region far from the front line. The claims about Selydove and Hirnyk came from Russia, while the pace of the advance was drawn from open-source data. Kadyrov's vow of retaliation was the only reaction reported from the Chechen side.
