What the INF treaty suspensions set in motion

What happened to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in the days before 6 February 2019? Over two days the United States and Russia each announced a suspension of their roles in the 1987 agreement.

On 1 February 2019, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced that Washington was suspending its role in the treaty. He cited Russian non-compliance. The agreement, concluded in 1987 with the USSR and by extension its successor state Russia, banned both countries from possessing or testing nuclear and conventional intermediate-range missiles and their launchers.

On 2 February 2019, Russian President Vladimir Putin responded by suspending Russia's involvement. He said Russia would now start developing new missiles. He framed the step as a reaction to the American decision to withdraw from the treaty.

A tit-for-tat sequence

The order of events was plain: a US announcement, citing Russian non-compliance, was followed within a day by a Russian suspension tied explicitly to that move. Moscow's stated next step was the development of new missiles, the very category of weapon the treaty had barred.

The exchange was widely placed within a broader pattern of heightened tension between Russia and the United States. Scholars and journalists have used the labels Second Cold War, Cold War II and New Cold War for such tensions, although some commentators have discouraged the terms.

Why it mattered for the region

The treaty covered both nuclear and conventional missiles of intermediate range, so suspending it removed the shared limit on possessing or testing them. For Ukraine and its neighbours, the immediate significance was that a decades-old restraint agreed between Moscow and Washington had come into question, with both sides now describing their own steps as suspensions.