Ukraine and its neighbours, explained

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What the days before 19 June 2024 showed

Summary

A retrospective on the diplomatic and security developments that preceded 19 June 2024, from a US-Ukraine pact to a Russian ceasefire offer.

What had Kyiv's partners and its adversary put on the table by 19 June 2024? The reports from the preceding days point in different directions.

On 13 June 2024, US President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a ten-year security agreement. Its stated aim was to strengthen Ukraine's defensive capabilities.

One day later, on 14 June 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that he was ready for a ceasefire on conditions. He said Ukraine would have to withdraw from Russian-claimed territories, including liberated areas, and stop its accession to NATO. Ukraine rejected the offer.

Taken together, the two developments set out sharply opposed positions. One was a long-term commitment between Washington and Kyiv. The other was a Russian proposal that Ukraine declined.

A dispute on the Polish border

A separate matter surfaced in the region on 17 June 2024. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk ordered Germany to explain a recorded incident in which German police appeared to abandon a migrant family in Osinów Dolny, Poland, just east of the Germany–Poland border.

The order showed a strain in relations between two neighbouring states, though the reports did not set out what followed.

As 19 June 2024 arrived, then, the picture was of a signed security pact, a rejected ceasefire proposal and a diplomatic demand between Warsaw and Berlin.

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