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Zelenskyy's late September 2024 diplomacy, reviewed
Summary
A look back at the diplomatic pressures on Kyiv in the days before 1 October 2024, from Washington to Minsk.
What was the diplomatic backdrop for Kyiv on 1 October 2024? The reports from the preceding week point to support, friction and warnings arriving at once.
Aid from Washington
On 26 September 2024, before meeting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, U.S. President Joe Biden announced a military aid package of more than $8 billion. He also directed the Pentagon to allocate all remaining security funds to Ukraine by the end of his term in January 2025. The announcement set a clear timetable for American assistance.
Friction at home and abroad
The previous day, 25 September, Republican Speaker of the House Mike Johnson demanded that Zelenskyy dismiss Ukraine's ambassador to the United States, Oksana Markarova. His complaint followed Zelenskyy's visit to an ammunition factory in Pennsylvania with several Democratic politicians. Johnson claimed the visit represented foreign electoral intervention. The episode placed Ukraine's wartime diplomacy inside the 2024 US presidential election campaign.
On the same day, Zelenskyy accused Brazil and China of using their proposed peace plan to increase their geopolitical power at Ukraine's expense. He said they did so by urging developing nations to agree to it. Kyiv was therefore contesting not only Russia's war aims but also the terms on which other states proposed to end the war.
A warning from Minsk
On 27 September, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko warned that Belarus would use Russian nuclear weapons if NATO attacked the country. The statement added a nuclear dimension to Belarus's involvement in the war.
What the week showed
Taken together, the reports show Ukraine's position as of 1 October 2024. It had a large pledge of American military aid with a defined end date. It faced partisan scrutiny in Washington. It was in open disagreement with two major states over peace proposals, and it was the subject of a nuclear warning from a neighbour allied with Moscow.
