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Did the week of missile firsts raise the stakes?
Summary
A look back at the escalation that unfolded between 19 and 22 November 2024, as long-range Western weapons and a new Russian missile reshaped the security picture around Ukraine.
What had changed in the security picture around Ukraine by 25 November 2024? The days leading up to that date carried a run of firsts, each answered by a move from the other side, and neighbouring states were already adjusting.
A sequence of firsts
On 19 November, Ukraine launched ATACMS ballistic missiles at targets in Bryansk Oblast, according to the Russian Defence Ministry. It was the first time Ukraine had used the American-supplied missiles against targets inside Russia. The same day, the United Kingdom and France were preparing new military packages containing long-range missiles for Ukraine, following President Biden's decision to allow deep strikes into Russian territory with American weapons. Biden also approved sending non-persistent anti-personnel mines to Ukraine, with Kyiv committing not to use them in areas with civilians.
On 20 November, Ukraine fired British-produced Storm Shadow cruise missiles into Russian territory for the first time, following approval by the Starmer cabinet. On 21 November, the Russian ambassador to the United Kingdom, Andrey Kelin, said the UK was now "directly involved" in the war because of that use.
Russia's answer
On 21 November, Russia struck Dnipro with a projectile that President Vladimir Putin described as a new Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile. This confirmed earlier reports from the United States and other western officials that Russia had used an intermediate-range missile. Initial reports had misidentified it as an RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile.
Conventional attacks continued as well. On 22 November, a Russian drone attack on civilian infrastructure in Sumy killed two people and injured 12.
Precautions beyond the front line
The warnings had spread well beyond the battlefield. On 20 November, the United States, Italy, Greece and Spain temporarily closed their embassies in Kyiv after threats of a "significant air attack" from Russia. The embassies of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan urged their citizens to leave areas near Ukrainian combat zones, or Ukraine altogether, citing a rising risk of Russian retaliatory attacks.
On 21 November, Hungary announced it was deploying a missile defence system on its border with Ukraine, saying the threat of escalation with Russia was greater than ever.
In Belarus, meanwhile, around 1,671 anti-war protesters were arrested on 20 November for showing solidarity with Ukraine, as part of a crackdown on the opposition under President Alexander Lukashenko.
What the sequence showed
The order of events is the main point. Washington's permission for deep strikes was followed within days by ATACMS and Storm Shadow launches, then by Moscow's rhetorical charge against London and the use of the Oreshnik at Dnipro. Diplomatic missions, Central Asian governments and a NATO-neighbouring state each responded to the heightened risk in their own way, from closures and travel advice to air defence deployments.
By 25 November 2024, the question for observers was no longer whether Western long-range weapons would be used against Russian territory, but how Russia would continue to respond, and how far the effects would reach beyond Ukraine's borders.
