Ukraine and its neighbours, explained

Advertisement

Home › Opinion › What 12 December 2024 showed about the war

Opinion

What 12 December 2024 showed about the war

Summary

A look back at a day when strikes, arms sales and nuclear signalling framed the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

What did the war look like on 12 December 2024, and what was being said and decided around it? The picture came in pieces: a drone attack inside Russia, fresh Western military support, a deadly strike on a clinic in Zaporizhzhia and a public confirmation about nuclear weapons in Belarus.

A drone attack in Chechnya

On 12 December 2024, four police officers were injured in a drone attack on the barracks of a police regiment building in Grozny, Chechnya, Russia. The report described an attack on a target inside Russia, part of the category of attacks in Russia during the invasion.

Aid decisions in the days before

The days before brought concrete decisions on military support. On 11 December 2024, the Parliament of Canada approved the allocation of CA$764 million (US$587 million) in military aid to Ukraine. The same day, the United States Department of State approved a $266.4 million sale of F-16 maintenance equipment to Ukraine.

The two decisions covered different needs: one was a funding allocation, the other an approved sale of maintenance equipment for aircraft. Later developments showed how the American position would change. Since 2025, the second Trump administration has proposed a peace deal and increasingly sought to distance itself from financially supporting Ukrainian resistance. That was not known on 12 December 2024, when the Biden administration was still providing military, financial and humanitarian aid and had imposed sanctions against Russia and Belarus.

Civilians under fire in Zaporizhzhia

On 10 December 2024, a Russian missile strike on a private clinic in Zaporizhzhia killed four civilians and injured 20 others. Zaporizhzhia lies in the south, where Russian forces had entered from occupied Crimea at the start of the full-scale invasion on 24 February 2022. The clinic strike showed that the southern front was still producing civilian casualties well into the third year of the war.

Nuclear signalling from Minsk

Also on 10 December 2024, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko confirmed the presence of nuclear weapons in his country, including Russia's Oreshnik missile system. The statement fed into a wider debate about nuclear risk during the war. Senior Russian politicians, including President Vladimir Putin, had made a number of statements widely seen as nuclear blackmail, and commentators and media had discussed the possibility of tactical nuclear use and broader escalation. Some scholars called the invasion the type of scenario most likely to trigger a nuclear war in Europe. The British historian Lawrence Freedman argued the risk was low, since in Putin's mind nuclear use is best kept for the most extreme contingencies when the state faces an existential threat.

Reading the day

Taken together, these reports from 10 to 12 December 2024 show a war on several levels at once. Drones reached into Russian territory. Missiles struck civilian sites in Ukrainian cities. Partners kept moving money and equipment toward Kyiv, and Minsk used the moment to underline a nuclear posture. None of these items settled anything on its own, but together they give a record of what a mid-December day in the third year of the invasion contained.

Related analysis