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What did Ukraine's first Bayraktar strike change?
Summary
A retrospective on the Bayraktar TB2's first reported use in Donbas and the Kremlin's warning that followed.
What happened in Donbas in the days around 28 October 2021, and why did a single drone strike draw a response from Moscow?
On 26 October 2021, Ukraine confirmed its first drone strikes using the Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2. According to that report, the strike destroyed a pro-Russian separatist D-30 howitzer. The same day, a Ukrainian soldier was killed and another wounded by rebel artillery near Hranitne in Donetsk Oblast.
The Kremlin's warning
On 27 October 2021, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned that the delivery of the Bayraktar and its first operational deployment in Donbas might "destabilize the situation" in the region. The remark came a day after Ukraine's first strikes against separatist forces using the drone.
Fighting on the ground
Also on 27 October 2021, the foreign minister of the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic, Natalya Nikonorova, said Ukrainian troops had regained control of the village of Staromaryivka, in the so-called grey zone between Ukraine and the DPR.
Where things stood on 28 October 2021
By 28 October 2021, then, three developments stood side by side: Ukraine's confirmed use of a Turkish-made armed drone, a Russian warning about the consequences, and a claim of Ukrainian movement into a grey-zone village. The reports also carried a reminder of the human cost, with the soldier killed near Hranitne.
Ukraine was already among the countries identified, as of 2019, as having operational unmanned combat aerial vehicles. The October 2021 strikes were the first use of the Bayraktar TB2 against separatist forces that Ukraine confirmed.
