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What 10 violations in Luhansk said about Donbas
Summary
A single day's ceasefire tally from 26 February 2021 shows how the war in Donbas persisted under the framework of the Minsk agreements.
What does a count of ten ceasefire violations tell us about a war? On 26 February 2021, Ukraine reported 10 violations of the ceasefire in the Luhansk region, part of the continuing war in Donbas.
The figure is small, but it is useful for what it shows. The fighting had not ended, and a ceasefire existed on paper while incidents were still being logged day by day.
The framework behind the tally
The Minsk agreements were a series of international agreements meant to end the Donbas war, fought between armed Russian separatist groups, backed by Russian regular forces, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Talks took place in Minsk, Belarus, and involved the Trilateral Contact Group, made up of representatives of Ukraine, Russia and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). France and Germany mediated at leader level in the Normandy Format. The first Minsk Protocol was signed in September 2014.
What the number does and does not show
A tally of ten violations in one region on one day cannot by itself show whether the situation was improving or worsening. What it does show is that, more than six years after the first Minsk Protocol, the arrangements it began had not produced a settled peace. Reports of this kind were a routine part of how the war was described.
