What did the world believe about Flight 752?

What did the world know about the crash of Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 on 9 January 2020, a day after it fell? Already, a good deal, and it pointed away from the explanation Tehran was offering.

The Boeing 737-800 had crashed on 8 January 2020 while taking off from Tehran Imam Khomeini International Airport, killing all 176 people on board. It was flying the Tehran–Kyiv route for Ukraine International Airlines. The crash took place amid the 2019–20 Persian Gulf crisis and was under investigation.

Two competing accounts

On 9 January 2020, U.S., Canadian, British and Iraqi officials said they believed the plane had most likely been brought down accidentally by an Iranian anti-aircraft missile. Iran, for its part, attributed the crash to mechanical failure.

The same day, The New York Times released a verified video obtained from an Iranian citizen. It showed the aircraft being struck by what appeared to be a surface-to-air missile. The footage gave substance to the officials' belief and sharpened the contrast with the account coming from Tehran.

Ottawa's careful line

At a news conference, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said it was too early to draw definitive conclusions that the downing of the plane was an act of war. He also condemned Iran's attack on U.S. bases in Iraq. His remarks separated the question of what had happened to the aircraft from the wider confrontation between Iran and the United States, a distinction that mattered while the cause was still being established.

What came next

The cause was later settled. Background compiled afterwards states that the aircraft was shot down by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps shortly after take-off. None of that was officially acknowledged on 9 January 2020; on that date the public record consisted of Western and Iraqi assessments, a video and Iran's insistence on a technical fault.

A crowded news day

The crash competed for attention with other regional news. On 8 January 2020, the heads of state of Turkey, Russia, Serbia and Bulgaria had formally inaugurated the TurkStream gas pipelines. For Ukrainian readers, however, the loss of a national carrier's aircraft and the 176 lives on board dominated the picture.

Looking back, 9 January 2020 stands out as the day the evidence began to outrun the official explanation. Officials in several capitals spoke cautiously, a newspaper put a verified video into circulation, and the account offered by Iran stood increasingly alone.