What Kyiv and Minsk were saying by 29 November 2021

What was the mood in Ukraine and its neighbourhood on 29 November 2021? Two statements made in the preceding days, on 26 November 2021, help to answer that.

Kyiv alleges a coup plot

On 26 November 2021, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of plotting a coup against him. He said the tycoon Rinat Akhmetov was being enlisted to help plan it. Zelensky also said his country was prepared for any scenario as tensions rose.

Lukashenko at the border

On the same day, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko appeared at the Belarus–Poland border for the first time since the migrant crisis began. He addressed migrants there and told them they were free either to return home or to head west. He said Belarusian forces would not detain, choke or beat those who chose to go west, and that it was up to them.

The crisis he addressed had begun in August 2021, when Belarus started sponsoring an influx of migrants, mostly from the Middle East and North Africa, to the borders of Lithuania, Poland and Latvia. Belarus denied involvement, but the European Union and independent observers viewed the movement as hybrid warfare, carried out amid worsening Belarus–European Union relations after the 2020 presidential election and the 2020–2021 protests.

Between August and December 2021, tens of thousands of unauthorised crossing attempts were recorded, peaking in October. Later reports said at least 20 migrants died during the following winter because of harsh weather and abuse from border authorities.

Two pressure points

The two statements concerned different disputes, one over security in Ukraine and one over migration on the EU's eastern frontier. Both were made publicly by heads of state within days of 29 November 2021.