Who downed Flight 752? The claims of 9 January 2020

What did the world know about the crash of Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 on 9 January 2020, a day after it came down near Tehran? Two accounts were already in direct conflict.

The flight was a scheduled service from Tehran to Kyiv, operated by Ukraine International Airlines. The Boeing 737-800 crashed shortly after takeoff on 8 January 2020, and all 176 people on board were killed.

Two competing explanations

On 9 January, U.S., Canadian, British and Iraqi officials said they believed the crash was likely caused accidentally by an Iranian anti-aircraft missile. Iran, for its part, attributed the crash to "mechanical failure".

The same day, The New York Times released a verified video obtained from an Iranian citizen. It showed the plane being struck by what appeared to be a surface-to-air missile. That footage gave the officials' belief a visual basis and sharpened the contrast with Tehran's explanation.

Ottawa's cautious line

In a news conference, the Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, said it was too early to draw definitive conclusions that the downing was an act of war. He also condemned Iran's attack on U.S. bases in Iraq. His remarks separated the question of the airliner from the wider confrontation, and he stopped short of characterising the incident in the language of war.

What the day established

By the end of 9 January, the question was no longer only whether the plane had been brought down by a missile, but whether Iran would acknowledge it. The Western and Iraqi officials called the shooting likely accidental, and Trudeau's caution showed that governments were still weighing how to describe it.

The background shows how the matter was later settled: the aircraft was shot down by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. On 9 January 2020, that conclusion had not been confirmed by Iran, and the dispute over the cause was still open.