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Why the Azov crisis dominated 5 December 2018
Summary
A look back at the diplomatic and security pressures on Kyiv and Moscow in the days around 5 December 2018, after the Kerch Strait clash.
What was the situation around the Sea of Azov on 5 December 2018, and why did it matter beyond the region? The days before that date had produced a cluster of moves that tied Ukraine's security to wider relations between Russia, NATO and the United States.
The trigger was the Kerch Strait incident of 25 November 2018, when the Russian Federal Security Service coast guard fired upon and captured three Ukrainian Navy vessels. They had been trying to transit from the Black Sea into the Sea of Azov on their way to the port of Mariupol. It was the first time Russian forces had openly engaged Ukrainian forces during the Russo-Ukrainian War.
Ports under pressure
By 29 November, Ukraine's Infrastructure Minister, Volodymyr Omelyan, said the ports of Berdiansk and Mariupol were effectively under blockade, because Russia was refusing to let any Ukrainian vessels leave or enter the Sea of Azov. President Petro Poroshenko called on NATO to send warships to patrol the sea.
Diplomacy tied to the ships
The same day, U.S. President Donald Trump cancelled a planned meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires. He said it was not a good time because Russia had not returned the ships and sailors to Ukraine. The decision came shortly after he had said he would probably meet Putin, and after Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov had said the meeting was still on.
On the NATO side, the Belgian Air Component reported that Belgian F-16s flying Baltic Air Policing missions for NATO had intercepted Russian Flanker jets, allegedly because they had no flight plan. The report concerned the Baltic rather than the Azov, but it showed the routine friction between Russian and NATO aircraft in the same period.
Martial law and the entry ban
On 30 November, Ukraine banned Russian men aged between 16 and 60 from entering the country, following the imposition of martial law. Poroshenko said the measure was meant to prevent the formation of "private armies" in Ukraine. Russia said it did not plan to retaliate.
What the sequence showed
Taken together, the reports from 29 to 30 November show a dispute that moved quickly from a single maritime clash to commercial restrictions, a request for NATO naval help, a cancelled summit meeting and domestic security measures in Kyiv. Russia's stated decision not to retaliate against the entry ban stood out against the harder exchanges at sea and in diplomacy.
