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Gas, borders and Ukraine: Europe's choice in November 2021
Summary
A look back at how Belarus's gas threat and talk of Russian troop buildups framed the debate over Ukraine and European energy.
What did the energy argument around Ukraine look like on 17 November 2021? It had been shaped by statements made in the days before, and they linked gas supplies, the Belarus border crisis and fears about Russian forces near Ukraine.
On 11 November, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko suggested that Belarus could halt natural gas supplies into Europe if the EU pushed ahead with more sanctions. The sanctions concerned human trafficking, which had led to the border crisis. EU member states were due to decide on them the following week.
On 13 November, Russian President Vladimir Putin responded. He said that a Belarusian threat to cut gas supplies to Europe would breach the contract with Russia. He suggested it might have been made in a fit of temper by Lukashenko.
On 16 November, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson turned the discussion towards Ukraine. He said the west would have to choose between reliance on Russian gas and supporting Ukraine. He spoke amid reported buildups of the Russian military near the Ukrainian border.
Why it mattered
Taken together, the statements placed Ukraine inside a wider European debate. Gas supply, sanctions pressure on Belarus and concern over troop movements were being discussed side by side, and Johnson's remark framed the question as a choice for western governments.
The exchange between Putin and Lukashenko also showed a public difference over how Belarus used the gas issue. Putin's comment treated the threat as a contractual matter with Russia rather than a policy to be pursued.
