Nord Stream 2 and sanctions: what 29 December 2020 showed

What did the final days of 2020 reveal about Western pressure on Moscow and its neighbours? On 29 December 2020, two recent reports offered a partial answer.

On 28 December 2020, the Russian-led consortium Nord Stream AG said it had completed construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in Germany's exclusive economic zone in the Baltic Sea. The United States had previously threatened wider sanctions on the project if work continued. The consortium's announcement therefore came despite that warning.

Five days earlier, on 23 December 2020, the Trump administration imposed additional sanctions on Belarusian officials and four offices, citing human rights abuses during protests against President Alexander Lukashenko.

Taken together, the two reports show Washington using sanctions on two fronts: as a threat against a pipeline project, and as a penalty against officials in Minsk. The outcomes differed. In the Belarus case, the measures were actually imposed. In the Nord Stream 2 case, the threat of wider measures had not stopped the consortium from reporting progress in German waters.

For readers in Kyiv and across the region, the point is narrower than any grand conclusion: sanctions announced in advance and sanctions applied are different instruments, and by 29 December 2020 they had produced different results.