Belarus border row with Ukraine, as of 7 July 2021

What was brewing on Belarus's borders by 7 July 2021? Within the preceding days, two neighbours had taken sharply different steps in response to Minsk, and both pointed to a deteriorating regional atmosphere.

On 2 July 2021, Belarus closed its border with Ukraine. President Alexander Lukashenko claimed that arms were being smuggled into the country in an attempt by "outside powers" to overthrow his regime. He said they had crossed the line and that he could not forgive them. Ukraine denied the claims and said that closing the border would make its people "suffer".

The same day, Lithuania declared a state of emergency. The number of undocumented migrants crossing into the country from Belarus had increased. The Lithuanian government accused Lukashenko of deliberately trying to destabilize the country by encouraging and allowing refugees, mostly Syrians, to cross the border.

Two borders, two accusations

The accusations ran in opposite directions. Minsk alleged hostile interference from outside, while Vilnius alleged deliberate destabilisation from Belarus itself. Kyiv rejected the charge made against it and pointed to the cost to ordinary people of a closed frontier.