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Opinion

What Russia's border drawdown announcement signalled in April 2021

Summary

A look back at two statements, on 21 and 22 April 2021, that framed the diplomatic picture ahead of 27 April.

What did the picture look like on 27 April 2021, after a week of competing signals over the Ukrainian border? Two reports from the days before that date set the terms.

On 21 April 2021, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky invited his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, to meet face to face on the front line in the war-torn Donbas to negotiate an end to the conflict. The offer was public and direct, and it placed the war in Donbas at the centre of the exchange.

On 22 April, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that it would move its forces away from the Ukrainian border beginning the following day. Ukraine and its western allies had accused Russia of trying to provoke conflict by moving troops to the border. Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu had claimed that the deployment was only for drills.

Two readings of the same week

The two announcements came a day apart but pointed in different directions. One was an invitation to talk; the other was a statement about military posture, framed by Moscow as the end of an exercise. Kyiv and its allies had described the same troop movements as provocation, while Russian officials described them as training.

By 27 April 2021, the announced drawdown was the latest word on the border, and Zelensky's invitation was the latest public proposal for negotiations.

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