What Iran's admission on Flight 752 changed

What did Iran's admission over Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 mean as of 16 January 2020? Five days after the confession, the sequence of events was already clear, even if its consequences were not.

The flight, a Boeing 737-800 operated by Ukraine International Airlines, was flying from Tehran to Kyiv. On 8 January 2020 it was shot down shortly after takeoff by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, killing all 176 people aboard.

From denial to admission

On 10 January, after Canada's Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, suggested an Iranian missile had brought the plane down, Iranian authorities rejected the idea. The country's civil aviation chief said he was certain no missile had hit the aircraft and still pointed to mechanical failure.

The position did not last. On 11 January the Revolutionary Guard admitted it had mistakenly shot the plane down as it took off. Iran's president also acknowledged that the armed forces had hit the aircraft by mistake with a missile.

Vigils become protests

The admission had consequences inside Iran. Vigils held for the victims turned into protests on 11 January. According to videos posted on Twitter, hundreds of demonstrators in Tehran called for the resignation of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The same day, Robert Macaire, the British ambassador to Iran, was arrested after attending a vigil. Tasnim News Agency said he was held on suspicion of organising, provoking and directing radical actions. The UK Foreign Secretary, Dominic Raab, called the arrest a flagrant violation of international law. Macaire was released more than an hour later.

What the sequence showed

The order of events is the main point. Within roughly three days, an official denial was overtaken by a military admission, and public mourning in Iran moved into open political protest. For Ukraine, whose national carrier lost the aircraft, the admission settled the question of cause that had been disputed on 10 January.