Did the Donbas ceasefire hold by 31 July 2020?

Did the new ceasefire in eastern Ukraine hold? By 31 July 2020, the answer looked uncertain, given what had been reported in the days before.

On 26 July 2020, the government of Ukraine concluded a ceasefire deal with rebel forces in the war in Donbass. The truce was due to begin at midnight. The conflict in eastern Ukraine had been going on since 2014 and, as reported at the time, had killed more than 14,000 people.

A violation within hours

On 27 July 2020, Ukraine's military said pro-Russian separatists had broken the ceasefire just hours after it was declared. According to the military, they opened fire on Ukrainian positions with anti-tank grenade launchers and small arms. Ukrainian forces did not return fire.

The wider setting

The fighting in Donbass belongs to a longer conflict. Later accounts place its roots in the unrest of 2014, which followed the Euromaidan and the Revolution of Dignity and the ousting of the Russian-leaning president Viktor Yanukovych. Demonstrations by pro-Russian and anti-government groups took place in Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv and Odesa. That unrest was supported by the Russian military and intelligence services and is counted among the early stages of the Russo-Ukrainian war.

The July 2020 truce was therefore an attempt to calm a conflict that had run for six years. The reported response to the first violation, in which Ukrainian forces held their fire, was one early sign of how the arrangement was being handled on the ground.