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Three security flashpoints before 20 November 2021
Summary
A look back at reports from 16 November 2021 on Ukraine's border, Poland's frontier with Belarus and the Armenia–Azerbaijan clashes.
What was the security picture across Ukraine and its neighbourhood as 20 November 2021 arrived? Reports from the days just before that date point to three separate flashpoints, each unfolding on a border.
Ukraine and the gas question
On 16 November 2021, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the west would have to choose between reliance on Russian gas and supporting Ukraine. His remark came amid reported buildups of the Russian military near the border with Ukraine.
Poland's frontier with Belarus
The same day, migrants at a temporarily closed checkpoint in Kuźnica, Poland, threw stones at Polish border guards and tried to destroy the border fence to break through from Belarus. The guards responded with water cannons and tear gas. Poland's ministry accused the Belarusian military of aiding the attacks along Poland's borders. The episode formed part of what was described as the 2021 Belarus–European Union border crisis.
Armenia and Azerbaijan
Further south, on 16 November 2021, border clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan left fifteen Armenian soldiers dead, and Azerbaijani forces captured twelve more. Both sides traded recriminations before a Russian-brokered ceasefire was agreed at 19:00 local time.
A region under strain
The three events were separate, and the reports do not link them. Together they show a region where borders were the focus of security concerns in the days before 20 November 2021: troop concentrations near Ukraine, a contested frontier in Poland, and deadly fighting in the South Caucasus.
