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Kerch Strait aftermath: martial law and reopened shipping
Summary
Three days after the confrontation at sea, a look at what had already been set in motion by 28 November 2018.
What was the state of play on 28 November 2018, three days after Russian forces fired on and seized Ukrainian naval vessels in the Kerch Strait?
The incident itself took place on 25 November 2018. The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) coast guard fired upon and captured three Ukrainian Navy vessels as they tried to pass from the Black Sea into the Sea of Azov on their way to the port of Mariupol. It was the first time Russian forces had openly engaged Ukrainian forces during the Russo-Ukrainian War.
Decisions already taken
By 28 November the main early steps had been made. On 26 November 2018, Russia asked for an urgent meeting of the United Nations Security Council. The same day, the Verkhovna Rada approved the introduction of martial law in 10 oblasts of Ukraine for a period of 30 days.
Also on 26 November, the Kerch Strait was re-opened to commercial shipping.
What the sequence showed
Within a single day, the dispute had moved from the water to the diplomatic and legislative arenas. Moscow turned to the UN Security Council, while Kyiv's parliament put martial law in place across ten oblasts for 30 days. The reopening of the strait to commercial vessels was reported on the same date.
The days that followed 28 November 2018 would determine how far those measures went, but the outlines of the response were already visible: an urgent international forum requested by Russia, a time-limited domestic security regime in Ukraine, and a waterway back in commercial use.
